Từ ngày 07-13/7/2015, Tòa Trọng tài thường trực (PCA) tổ chức điều trần nghe Philippines trình bày quan điểm về vụ kiện. Phiên tòa lần này quan trọng bởi vì PCA sẽ quyết định cơ sở pháp lý đối với đơn kiện của Philippines và thẩm quyền thụ lý vụ kiện của PCA.
Mặc dù PCA chưa công bố quyết định của Tòa vì còn chờ phản hồi từ các bên, giới quan sát quốc tế dự đoán rằng PCA có thể quyết định có thẩm quyền thụ lý vụ kiện và sau này có thể sẽ phán quyết một số điểm có lợi cho Philippines. Theo TS. Peter A. Dutton (Giám đốc Viện nghiên cứu biển Trung Hoa thuộc Cao đẳng Chiến tranh Hoa Kỳ – U.S. Naval War College), nếu PCA quyết định có thẩm quyền có nghĩa là PCA nhận thấy rằng yêu sách “đường lưỡi bò” không thể biện hộ theo cách mà Trung Quốc vẫn thường tuyên bố theo “quyền lịch sử”.
Phản ứng của Trung Quốc
Trung Quốc sẽ phủ nhận quyết định của PCA như trong bản tuyên bố lập trường (Position Paper) hồi tháng 12/2014. Nhưng Trung Quốc cũng không thể bàng quan trước phán quyết của PCA. Bắc Kinh có thể phải tìm các phương án khi PCA tuyên bố “đường lưỡi bò” vô hiệu lực. Các phương án này có thể gồm:
Thứ nhất, theo Xue Li (Giám đốc Chiến lược quốc tế, Viện kinh tế chính trị thế giới, Viện hàn lâm khoa học Trung Quốc – CASS), Trung Quốc sẽ phải tính đến phương án đối phó với việc các bên yêu sách nhỏ có thể sẽ đẩy mạnh thăm dò dầu khí nước sâu trong “đường lưỡi bò”. Các nước này có thể thông qua hợp tác với các công ty dầu khí quốc tế, dẫn đến sự tham gia của nhiều nước. Ví dụ, Công ty Dầu khí Ấn độ OVL ngày 12/7 quyết định kéo dài dự án thăm dò Lô 128 khi dự án này hết hạn trong tháng 7. Trong khi đó, Exxon Mobil và Murphy Oil cũng ký thỏa thuận thăm dò khai thác với Tập đoàn dầu khí Việt Nam (PVN) trong chuyến thăm Mỹ của Tổng Bí thư Nguyễn Phú Trọng. Exxon Mobil dự kiến sẽ sản xuất dòng khí đốt đầu tiên từ mỏ khí Cá Voi Xanh (gần địa điểm mà Trung Quốc hạ đặt giàn khoan HD 981) vào khoảng năm 2021.
Thứ hai, về lâu dài, Trung Quốc có thể diễn giải chủ quyền ở Trường Sa thông qua đảo Ba Bình. Việc Trung Quốc đồng tình với tuyên bố mới đây của Tổng thống Đài Loan Mã Anh Cửu bảo vệ Ba Bình và vùng đặc quyền kinh tế 200 hải lý xung quanh đảo này có thể là một dấu hiệu theo hướng này. Bắc Kinh có thể lý giải là nước này yêu sách chủ quyền đối với Đài Loan, trong khi Đài Loan chiếm giữ Ba Bình, do đó có chủ quyền đối với đảo Ba Bình. Vì Ba Bình được chấp nhận rộng rãi là thực thể đủ điều kiện hưởng quy chế là “đảo”, có đầy đủ các vùng biển xung quanh, bao gồm lãnh hải, vùng đặc quyền kinh tế và thềm lục địa nên Trung Quốc có thể yêu sách một vùng đặc quyền kinh tế đối với Ba Bình và bao phủ lên các thực thể mà nước này đang cải tạo và xây dựng.
Cách giải thích này có vẻ gần với UNCLOS hơn so với “quyền lịch sử” theo “đường lưỡi bò”, nhưng có một số điểm cần làm rõ. Một là, các học giả Trung Quốc thường đề cập đến đảo Ba Bình như là một trong tám thực thể của nước này ở Trường Sa, nhưng Trung Quốc chưa bao giờ nói Ba Bình có 200 hải lý. Bắc Kinh không thể viện dẫn tuyên bố của Mã Anh Cửu là cơ sở pháp lý để quyết định Ba Bình là “đảo” theo cách giống như áp dụng với “đường lưỡi bò”. Việc này cần phải nhờ đến các cơ quan tư pháp quốc tế có thẩm quyền quyết định. Hai là, theo GS. Robert Beckman (Trung tâm Luật, Đại học Quốc gia Singapore), trong lúc tồn tại tranh chấp về chủ quyền, nước chiếm đóng và kiểm soát các thực thể không thể tăng cường yêu sách thông qua các hoạt động bồi đắp hay xây dựng các cấu trúc và cơ sở trên đó. Châu Viên, Chữ Thập, Subi và Gaven nằm ngoài EEZ của Philippines trong khi Gạc Ma, Tư Nghĩa và Vành Khăn nằm trong EEZ của Philippines, nhưng các thực thể này còn có thể nằm trong vùng biển 12 hải lý của các đảo hoặc đá lân cận thuộc sở hữu của Việt Nam. Như vậy, các bên phải cần đến phân định biển – việc này cần đến Tòa án quốc tế về luật biển. Không những thế, hai chuyên gia Raul P. Pedrozo và Mark E. Rosen (Trung tâm Phân tích Hải quân – Ceter for Naval Analyses – CNA, Mỹ) nghiên cứu so sánh, đối chiếu lịch sử yêu sách chủ quyền của ba nước Việt Nam, Trung Quốc và Philippines và kết luận rằng, Việt Nam có yêu sách chủ quyền vững chắc nhất đối với các đảo, đá ở Trường Sa.
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